🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform Participant Made $Nearly Half a Million on Bets Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of the US operation. Changing Odds in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the leader would be out of power by the end of January surged in the hours before President Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. A particular user, which registered on the site in December and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436,000 from a starting bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Platform data shows that participants estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd. But the odds had climbed to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the morning of January 3rd, pointing to a sharp shift in betting activity immediately prior to the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the signs of a transaction based on confidential knowledge," commented an industry expert. A handful of other traders also profited large payouts from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Elected officials are growing concerned. A new rule introduced on recently aims to prohibit public officials from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. Industry Context Prediction markets have surged in popularity in recent years, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to political events. This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting space. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."